Episode 621: The Moncada Contract, Win Expectancy, and the High-Five Hypothetical
Date February 24, 2015 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about Yoan Moncada, sabermetric broadcasts, the replacement-level high-five rate, and more. Topics * Yoan Moncada signing * Impact of Tim Lincecum's dad on Lincecum's performance * Tim Lincecum's dad and personal pitching coaches * Sabermetrics in broadcasts * Intentional walk rate * Base/out states * Replacement level high-five rate Intro Fiona Apple, "Anything We Want" Banter * Ben and Sam had to delay the scheduled preview for the Milwaukee Brewers because of trouble reaching Brewers beat writers. * Episode 619 follow-up: Effectively Wild listeners can get a discount on Stompers gear using the code 'BP'. Ben notes that they have a black hoodie that Sam could buy. Email Questions * Simon: "The observation was made that Yoan Moncada is like a top draft pick but because he was an international signing he was treated like a free agent and compensated (in theory) at a much higher rate. At age 19 he is unusual for an international signing in that he's a year older than a domestic high school draftee would be and ostensibly more developed which would make him just a little closer to major league ready. But he also doesn't have the track record a Jose Abreau or even Puig had. So how much did the Red Sox ultimatey overpay or underpay and why did no other team with a greater need to restock their minors (Brewers) open the change purse and blow Moncada away a la Arizona with Yasmany Tomas?" * Tim: "So what sabermetric aspect do you feel doesn't get talked about enough during a broadcast? Since the Pacific Association doesn't have much in the way of advanced metrics I leaned on OPS, BABIP and K/BB rates a lot last season but do you think there is something from a game theory perspective or another advanced metric realm that could educate the fans while also not having the information go over their heads?" * Dana: "Has there ever been a game in which an offense reached all 24 base/out states?" * John: "How many high-fives does an average replacement high-fiver give out during a season from day one of spring training until game 162? Think for just a minute how many hand slaps a player gives every single day, it might make you sick." Play Index * Sam wanted to find the players who had the most intentional walks as a percentage of total walks. * Vladimir Guerrero is the only hitter with an intentional walk rate 30% of higher than hit more than 115 home runs. * Manny Sanguillen intentionally walked 96 times in his career out of 223 total walks (43%). * Sam then wanted to find out if #8 hitters in the lineup are being intentionally walked more or less. * There is a subtle trend moving away from walking the #8 hitter in the NL. Sam notes that if the decline continues at its current rate, #8 hitters will not be walked intentionally during the season in the year 2650. Notes * The Red Sox signed Yoan Moncada to a contract that included a $31.5 million bonus. Because this goes over their international bonus pool allotment, they Red Sox will have to pay an additional 100% penalty of $31.5 million. * Sam says that Tim Lincecum's dad seems to be working with Lincecum again recently after a falling out the two had. Ben says because of this he would improve Lincecum's PECOTA projection by 1% based on that. * Ben and Sam think that win expectancy should get mentioned more in baseball broadcasts. Sam would prefer to see win expectancy more during the game than the score. * In a game on August 5th, 2007 the Mets put runners on base in every possible base/out state. * Sam wonders if players (mentioning Albert Belle specifically) can avoid the home-run high five line. * Ben and Sam use Alex Gonzalez as a baseline to come up with a total of 175 in-game high-five events for a player each season, with 14 high-fives per event. Additional high-fives are added for giving high-fives to other players, base coaches, end of game win lines, and more. Their total estimate is about 11,340, or 70 high-fives per game. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 621: The Moncada Contract, Win Expectancy, and the High-Five Hypothetical * Sonoma Stompers website * Does This Record Mean Anything? by Sam Miller Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes